India projected to join China in surpassing size of the U.S. economy by 2050
By Anand Giridharadas, Wednesday, January 24, 2007

The Indian economy will join that of China in surpassing the size of the U.S. economy by 2050 to become a motor of global growth, according to a new forecast by Goldman Sachs, the investment bank.

The United States is currently the world's largest economy. Goldman forecasts that the Chinese economy will pass that of the United States around 2035, while India will do the same about a decade later.

India has moved onto a much faster growth trajectory than the bank had previously expected, fueled by strong and steady productivity gains in its legions of new factories, which are producing everything from brassieres to cars.

The rise of India will lead to increasing global competition for resources and more pressure on the environment, Goldman said.

Goldman now expects the Indian economy to grow at 8 percent a year through 2020, higher than the 5.7 percent rate it predicted in 2003. Indian trade has been growing at 25 percent a year since 2003.

That year it published what is now widely known as the BRICs report, on the rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China. That report helped to galvanize global interest in developing economies and was often cited by investors during the 2006 bullish market in emerging- country stocks.
Goldman put out a research paper arguing that "India's influence on the world economy will be bigger and quicker than implied" in 2003.

For more info please go to the original International Herald Tribune article